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Posts published in “overconfidence”

The Illusion of Understanding

“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance—it is the illusion of knowledge.”   This wisdom, often attributed to American historian Daniel Boorstin, suggests a sister aphorism: The great enemy of democracy is not ill will, but the illusion of…

Economic Hindsight: Me, Wrong? Never!

One of psychology’s most reliable phenomena is “the overconfidence phenomenon”—the tendency, when making judgments and forecasts, to be more confident than correct. Stockbrokers market their advice regarding which stocks will likely rise while other stock brokers give opposite advice (with…